In a startling development in New York City's mayoral race, a recent poll indicates that former Governor Andrew Cuomo is rapidly gaining ground on Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani. The survey, conducted by Gotham Polling in collaboration with the city's AARP chapter, suggests that Cuomo could potentially overtake Mamdani if Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa withdraws from the contest.
The poll, which involved 1,040 likely voters over a two-day period last week, reveals that in a head-to-head race, 44.6 percent of New Yorkers would back Mamdani, while Cuomo would secure 40.7 percent. Given the survey's 4-point margin of error, this places the former governor well within striking distance of the frontrunner.
When considering the race with all three candidates, Mamdani maintains a more comfortable lead at 43.2 percent, with Cuomo trailing at 28.9 percent and Sliwa capturing 19.4 percent of likely voters. However, the dynamics of the race could shift dramatically if Sliwa, who has repeatedly stated his intention to stay in the race alongside Cuomo, were to exit.
The findings also suggest that older voters, a demographic that has not yet fully made up its mind, may decide the election's outcome. According to the New York Post, a significant 78 percent of undecided city voters are aged 50 or older. This group's preference could be pivotal, particularly since younger New Yorkers appear to favor Mamdani.
Stephen Graves, president of Gotham Polling & Analytics, emphasized the potential influence of this voting bloc. "The decisive factor in this race may be the older voters who haven't yet made up their minds," he stated. "If the contest narrows to two leading candidates, the 50-plus electorate—by far the most reliable voting bloc—will likely determine who becomes the next mayor of New York City."
The poll utilized demographics from the 2021 general election, which indicated that just under 40 percent of voters were under 50 years old. This model, however, may not fully account for Mamdani's support base, as his campaign has successfully registered tens of thousands of new young voters, potentially evening out the turnout between younger and older demographics.
Economic concerns are at the forefront of New York voters' minds across all age groups, with the cost of living being the top issue for 63.6 percent of those polled, followed by public safety and housing affordability. The political ideology of respondents skews liberal, with nearly 43 percent identifying as very or somewhat liberal, while just over 23 percent identify as somewhat or very conservative.
Mamdani, a 33-year-old state assemblyman from Queens, surprised many when he clinched the Democratic primary in June, defeating both Cuomo and outgoing Mayor Eric Adams. His self-described socialist stance and criticism of Israel have drawn scrutiny, particularly from members of the Jewish community.
Cuomo, 67, who is running as an independent after losing the Democratic Party primary, has highlighted Mamdani's lack of executive experience during the campaign. On WABC 770 AM's "The Cats Roundtable," Cuomo referred to Sliwa as a spoiler candidate, suggesting that a vote for Sliwa essentially benefits Mamdani.
Sliwa, 71, founder of the Guardian Angels and a former radio talk show host, has countered by suggesting that Cuomo should be the one to withdraw from the race.
Beth Finkel, AARP New York State Director, reiterated the significance of older voters, stating, "Once again, New York's older voters are poised to decide this election. These are issues that matter not only to older adults but to New Yorkers of every generation."
With the election fast approaching, the poll indicates that New York's mature voters will likely cast the deciding ballots, and the city's political landscape could be on the cusp of a significant shift.
