The political landscape in Iran is teeming with speculation as experts consider the potential aftermath of the current regime's collapse after more than four decades of rule. Among the names being discussed as possible successors is Reza Pahlavi, the exiled crown prince of Iran and the son of the last shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who was deposed during the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Reza Pahlavi, now 65, fled Iran in his youth and has spent decades in the United States, presently residing in Maryland. Despite his prolonged absence from Iran, Pahlavi has maintained connections with the Iranian diaspora and U.S. officials, and his profile has been on the rise as public discontent with the Islamic Republic grows. Former CIA officer Reuel Marc Gerecht noted that Pahlavi "has a certain following inside of the country," and there is increasing nostalgia for the pre-revolution era as the regime's credibility wanes.
This sentiment was echoed by Gerecht, who stated that the regime's "charisma has cratered," while Pahlavi's standing has "grown, if not skyrocketed." Pahlavi's call for nationwide protests on January 8 and 9 garnered significant online attention, with his message receiving over 3.2 million likes and 88 million views on Persian-language Instagram platforms.
In a recent op-ed for the Washington Post, Pahlavi clarified that he does not aspire to reinstate the monarchy but instead aims to facilitate a democratic transition in Iran. "I have therefore stepped forward to lead and serve in that capacity, not as a ruler in waiting, but as a steward of a national transition to democracy," Pahlavi wrote. Nonetheless, some analysts remain skeptical about Pahlavi's ability to command substantial support on the ground in Iran after such a long absence.
Another figure in the conversation is former President Hassan Rouhani, who served from 2013 to 2021 and was known for his advocacy of dialogue with the West. Rouhani made headlines in 2013 when he engaged in a direct phone call with then-President Barack Obama amid negotiations over Iran's nuclear program. According to Iran expert Ali Reza Nourizadeh, Rouhani is currently under intense scrutiny from the regime, which is wary of his potential communication with external entities.
Seyed Hossein Mousavian, a former diplomat and Iran's ambassador to Germany, who also participated in nuclear negotiations in the early 2000s, is another name being considered. Mousavian, who later took an academic position at Princeton University, is regarded as a resilient figure within Iran's political elite.
While individual leaders are being discussed, some analysts argue that the next leader may not be a person but rather a collective entity emerging from Iran's extensive security apparatus. Iran scholar Alireza Nader emphasized that "it's not going to be a person per se," but rather "forces on the ground" that will shape the country's future. Nader cautioned that as long as the regime remains unified, it is likely to meet unrest with extreme violence before ceding power.
