A new GrayHouse poll has revealed a significant shift in the political landscape of New York, a state known for its longstanding Democratic stronghold. Governor Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, is facing a decline in approval ratings, with only 36 percent of New York voters in favor of her performance and a disapproval rate at 55 percent. This comes at a time when the Republican Party is sensing an opportunity to gain ground in the state.
The poll, which surveyed 826 registered New York voters between April 22 and April 28, showed a surprising twist: former President Donald Trump garnered a higher approval rating than Hochul, sitting at 43 percent, albeit with a 56 percent disapproval rate. The margin of error for the poll is four percentage points. Political strategists are noting Trump's growing base in the state ahead of the 2024 election, with an energized push for continued Republican momentum.
The survey, reported by the Daily Mail, reflects broader dissatisfaction with the Democratic leadership in New York. Issues such as crime, illegal immigration, and political corruption are driving voter frustration and appear to be bolstering Republican support. Critics have linked Democratic policies, including those implemented during the pandemic and perceived lenient crime enforcement, to the party's waning popularity throughout the state.
This trend toward the right has already borne fruit for the GOP. In the 2022 elections, Republicans managed to flip four congressional districts, contributing to their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. Additionally, former GOP gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin narrowly lost to Hochul in 2022 by a mere six percentage points, indicating a shrinking political divide.
As New York looks to the 2026 elections, Republicans are preparing for Hochul's potential reelection bid, with hopes of staging a formidable challenge. According to pollster Landon Wall of GrayHouse, the political shift in New York, particularly in New York City, has been in motion since 2006 and is not exclusively tied to Trump's influence. Wall highlighted a growing desire among voters to break the single-party rule with energy for change extending beyond the former president.
The poll also revealed that 60 percent of voters are seeking new leadership in Albany, with a notable 75 percent of Independents and 34 percent of Democrats echoing this sentiment. Congresswoman Elise Stefanik is emerging as a strong Republican contender. Although she has not officially declared her candidacy, she is positioned within six points of Hochul in the polls. Stefanik has gained early support, with 44 percent of Republicans favoring her in a hypothetical primary.
In an interview, Stefanik acknowledged the political shift and credited it to dissatisfaction with the current Democratic governance. She pointed to a growing coalition that includes Republicans, Independents, and Democrats rallying behind her message of change and accountability. Stefanik, who has a history of involvement in state politics and was previously nominated by Trump for a U.N. ambassador role, continues to build her support base in anticipation of the 2026 race.