As Governor Gavin Newsom's current term nears its end, the California leader has indicated a strong possibility of seeking the presidency in 2028. With his odds of winning at 22 percent according to the prediction market Polymarket, Newsom now ranks second to Vice President JD Vance, who leads the field with a 29 percent chance of victory.
The recent surge in betting odds comes following Newsom's candid acknowledgement of considering a White House campaign post-2026 midterm elections. During a Sunday interview on CBS, when probed about whether he had seriously pondered the prospect, Newsom affirmed with a straightforward, "Yeah, I’d be lying otherwise." This remark aligns with the betting markets' and political analysts' speculation about his ambitions, as they have long identified him as a potential Democratic contender.
Governor Newsom's tenure in California's highest office is set to conclude in January 2027, and due to state term limits, he is ineligible for re-election as governor. This limitation coincides with his heightened national profile, which has been on the rise through various strategies, such as launching a bipartisan podcast and adopting a more assertive social media presence.
Newsom's approach has drawn comparisons to President Trump's communication style, noted for its aggressiveness and directness. This shift could be a strategic move to broaden his appeal and galvanize a national base as he contemplates a move to the national stage.
The governor has also been vocal about the need for the Democratic Party to introspect and redefine its identity and strategy. Reflecting on the party's recent electoral losses, Newsom stressed the importance of learning from past mistakes to avoid repetition. His statements suggest a push for reform within the party, potentially positioning himself as a transformative figure capable of leading such change.
Other notable figures have also expressed interest in the 2028 race. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) has 8 percent odds on the prediction market, while President Trump is listed at 4.3 percent. However, constitutional term limits would prevent President Trump from seeking another term unless a legal workaround is introduced.
Former Democratic candidate Kamala Harris has hinted at a potential return to the presidential campaign trail. In a recent BBC interview, she expressed her ongoing commitment to public service and speculated that her grand-nieces would likely see the country elect its first female president within their lifetimes, with her being a possible candidate.
As the race for the 2028 presidency begins to take shape, the political landscape will continue to evolve with new candidates and shifting odds. With Governor Newsom's increased visibility and calculated moves, the coming years will reveal the impact of his efforts to capture the nation's highest office.
